This week, residents of the metro-east are enjoying hot weather. However, many may be curious about when they can expect the cooler temperatures of autumn.
While winter officially begins in a few weeks, the St. Louis region will likely experience colder autumn weather before December 21st.
National Weather Service St. Louis meteorologist Alex Elmore shared insights with the News-Democrat on Monday, stating, “We’re going to get a true taste of fall this weekend; it’s going to be quite cool.”
The weather forecast indicates temperatures will dip below average over the weekend, with Saturday’s lows expected to reach the 40s.
This upcoming temperature shift can be attributed to a series of cold fronts, although some weather patterns exhibit longer durations than these typical fluctuations.
Of particular note is the emergence of an El Niño weather pattern, marking the first occurrence in several years.
El Niño and La Niña are terms used to describe climate patterns influenced by tradewinds and water temperatures.
El Niño is characterized by weakened trade winds and the eastward movement of warm water, as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
After a period of La Niña, the transition towards an El Niño pattern is underway, according to Elmore.
Elmore emphasized that the forthcoming winter season is expected to be influenced significantly by the El Niño pattern.
However, it’s important to note that smaller weather patterns and other determinants will also shape the season’s weather.
The Midwest typically experiences warmer and drier conditions during El Niño events, Elmore continued.
Nevertheless, because this pattern can extend over multiple years, it does not guarantee an entire winter of warmth and dryness.
Instead, it suggests that the region will likely witness warmer and drier weather more frequently than usual throughout this El Niño phase.
Anticipating Winter Weather in Illinois and St. Louis
Looking ahead, the National Weather Service’s three-month seasonal outlook suggests that residents of the St. Louis region have nearly equal chances of encountering above- or below-normal temperatures and precipitation from October through December.
Although it is still early to provide a comprehensive winter forecast, Elmore indicated that NWS forecasters anticipate having a more precise picture closer to late October or mid-November.
In the meantime, it is valuable to consider typical winter weather patterns in southwestern Illinois and St. Louis and insights from the Farmers’ Almanac.
The Farmers’ Almanac’s 2023 to 2024 Extended Weather Forecast anticipates traditional cool temperatures and snowy weather conditions across the US The organization predicts a ‘cold, stormy’ season for Illinois and “cold” temperatures with “average snowfall” for Missouri residents.
The Farmers’ Almanac makes predictions and relies on a mysterious formula that factors in planetary positioning, sunspot activity, and lunar tidal effects.
The identity of the formula’s keeper, Caleb Weatherbee, is closely guarded to protect the formula’s proprietary nature.
As temperatures gradually shift toward more astonishing territory and winter approaches, scientific and mystical forecasts offer glimpses into the potential weather conditions that may await Illinois and St. Louis residents in the coming months.